Friday, 20 November 2015

Weekend Picks (21/11/2015)

Should be an interesting weekend in the Big Ten, with great games taking place at State College and Columbus!

Let's start with Michigan. I don't know about you, but I'm very worried about this matchup vs Penn State. The Nittany Lions haven't beaten anyone good all year, but their defensive line will cause Michigan all kinds of problems. Jake Ruddock will have to have a near flawless game as Penn St look to pressure him often.

I won't be betting on this game, but I'll give a prediction: 34-24 Penn State....sadly.

On the betting front, I'm taking Iowa to beat Purdue at home, which should be an easy win. Whilst the Hawkeyes might be looking ahead to their clash at Nebraska next week, Purdue shouldn't put up much of a fight. This is paying 5%, easy money.

Next up is the showdown in Columbus, OH. I'm taking the Buckeyes! I think their running game should control things. Superior athletes, better coaching and home field advantage should be sufficient to bring the Buckeyes home. MSU don't have the defence of previous years, and OSU's D-Line could easily knock Connor Cook out given his shoulder troubles. Pays 16%.

Lastly, I'm backing the Fighting Irish to beat Boston College at Fenway Park. Whilst I'm somewhat cautious about betting against a great BC defence, their offense is simply woeful. Pays 11%.

Monday, 16 November 2015

Weekend Review

Both MSU and ND won on Saturday!

Usually this isn't good news for a Michigan fan, but when you've bet on both to win, it's happy days!

I didn't watch the ND game, but apparently it was closer than the score suggests. Still, this is the point of betting on heavy favourites, even when they don't play well they can still win by 21 points.

I tuned in for the first half of the Michigan State game and was not best pleased with how they started. Firstly, Connor Cook missed a couple of drives through injury and when he was in, clearly wasn't 100%.

Maryland was bringing tons of pressure on passing downs and MSU really struggled to pull away despite having great field position throughout the first half. Fortunately Maryland remembered that they are Maryland, and subsequently threw a pick-six right before half time to give MSU the lead. A strong drive after the break ensured the win.

MSU certainly didn't look like a team who was capable of winning in Columbus.

As for the least they won.

Next week gets a lot tougher as they take on a Penn State team that hasn't lost at home all season and has a decent QB & RB.

Friday, 13 November 2015

Confirmed Weekend Picks

My darts bet came in last night, bringing me to 17.12 units. These have been placed in a two team accumulator on Michigan State & Notre Dame.

MSU are coming off a road loss where they will feel robbed, but they still control their own destiny in the Big 10, so they will be motivated to put in a good showing against Maryland before the Ohio State showdown.

On offense, the Spartans are led by a strong senior QB in Connor Cook. He has 21 TDs this season to just 3 INTs. The running game is solid enough, and overall, I can't imagine them not scoring 30+ points on a weak Maryland team.

Defensively the Spartans have been well below the standard they set in previous years, and injures in the secondary have hurt them greatly. Fortunately Maryland's passing game is terrible, so the secondary won't be too exposed.

The spread is around 15 in MSU's favour, and the odds multiplier is 1.14, which is quite attractive for a top 15 team vs a weak conference opponent at home.

The only other game I really felt confident with this weekend was Notre Dame at home to Wake Forest. The Irish are a top 4 team right now, and whilst they might be looking ahead to their showdown with Stanford, I can't see how Wake Forest can leave South Bend with a win.

The odds are a shocking 1.025, but I'll take it. Combining these bets should return approximately 20.05 units which will bring me to my first checkpoint in the unit growth process.

Looking at the UM game this week, I have to say I'm a bit worried. Indiana have played a few good teams close already this season, including #5 Iowa last week. Their offense is statistically much stronger than Michigan's, so we will need a big performance from the UM defence to keep the Big 10 title dreams alive.

Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Mid-Week action and weekend preview

Mid-Week Picks?

There are no mid-week games that I like the look of in College Football, and as the European soccer players are on international break, there's a real lack of action.

This has caused me to delve into an old market that has treated me very well in the past; Darts.

Those in the US will not be too familiar with this sport, but rest assured; Michael Van Gerwen is a god and should not lose tomorrow night. All 16.11 units on Mr Van Gerwen: should return 17.11 units.

Weekend Preview

Not many games fit my strategy for CFB this weekend, but I'll confirm all bets on Friday after I've done the full research etc.

I like the look of Tennessee over North Texas, and TCU over Kansas, but both are so one-sided I will struggle to get game-line odds, so these are out.

Notre Dame over Wake Forest is certain to feature in my picks this weekend, as the Notre Dame offense looks strong, and WF is not up to much this year.

ND running back C J Prosise should be fine after a concussion, I think he's expected to play. Regardless, his backup Josh Adams shredded Pittsburgh last week.

ND are the #4 team in the nation following yesterday's CFP rankings, and as they are at home, I'm extremely confident and will be happy to bet all available units on them, despite the poor odds of 1.025.

Picks under consideration (all picks are home team):

Maryland @ Michigan State
SMU @ Navy
Minnesota @ Iowa
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals

Monday, 9 November 2015

Sunday Boredom

Having spent all of Saturday watching college football, Sunday evening did feel a bit empty. So I decided to bet all the units (15.03?) onto New England to beat Washington at home.

The Patriots won 27-10 bringing the total units up to 16.11.

So after one week our fund growth is 61.10%!

Encouraging start, but sadly an early look at next week reveals there are few CFB games that meet my criteria for betting, so it could be a quiet one.

Michigan are hunting down a Big Ten title however, so still something to look forward to! Go Blue!

Sunday, 8 November 2015

NCAAF Review

So the five team accumulator came in, and we're now at 15.03 units.

I watched the entire Florida game and won't be trusting them again anytime soon.

The Gators looked dreadful on offense, turning the ball over and letting Vanderbilt get to the quarterback at will. UF's defense looked good, but I shouldn't have to sweat out home games vs Vandy for top 10 sides. They should take a slide in the rankings.

Tennessee also made me nervous. Whilst they never trailed in the game, they blew a 17 point lead and South Carolina had a nice drive going to win the game late. Thankfully, Malik Foreman (hero) saved the game by forcing a fumble in the red-zone, leaving Tennessee to kneel it out.

Ohio State and Oklahoma were also in the accumulator. Didn't watch either of these, but apparently OSU didn't look that strong. Cardale Jones struggled early, and if I bet on them in the future, I would prefer J.T Barrett to be in.

Oklahoma cruised it, as they should have.

Lastly we have Michigan. Strange game to comment on in some ways. The defense didn't give up a defensive TD, but Rutgers got in plenty of scoring positions through a combination of special teams plays and phantom defensive penalties.

On offense, Ruddock clearly had his best game so far, but the running game didn't look great; averaging just 3.6 ypc vs a weak Rutgers D. This is a concern heading into two tricky road games against Indiana and Penn State.

The good news for Michigan is that MSU lost to Nebraska last night. This means that if we win out, and Ohio State beats MSU, Michigan should go to the Big Ten championship game!!! That would be an unbelievable achievement, and hopefully this will fire up the players next week in Bloomington, IN.

Friday, 6 November 2015

Weekend College Football Picks

Good start to the weekend with the Baylor pick coming in, which earned me 1 unit; see tracker on right hand side.

The strategy remains the same for the rest of the weekend....go for the heavy favourites at home.

That starts with Florida at home to Vanderbilt at 1.071 odds. I don't think the Gators are particularly strong, at least not statistically on offense. But the defence will force Vanderbilt's turnover heavy QB into more mistakes, and I see Florida winning about 28-3. Should be like printing money.

Next up we have our very own Michigan Wolverines, playing against a pretty weak Rutgers team who may be missing their best WR. Similar to the Florida game, I don't see Michigan lighting it up on offense, but the overall quality of the side should see them get an easy win. The odds here are a shocking 1.028, but I'll take it.

Other picks: Oklahoma over Iowa State, Ohio St over Minnesota, and Tennessee over South Carolina. All of these are home favourites.

I've put all five of these games into an accumulator, betting all 11 units I have, potential return is 14.49 units.

There were some other games I considered, like Georgia and Clemson, but they are a tad too risky for me, even in this 'testing' stage.