Friday, 9 September 2011

ND Prediction

When I did my pre-season prediction, I had this game down as a close win for Michigan. Unfortunately, my gut feeling is that Notre Dame will pull off the win tomorrow night, despite the enthusiastic crowd, and despite the best efforts of Denard Robinson.

We didn't see too much of Michigan's offense against WMU, but what we did see looked good enough to assume that Michigan will put up some points against ND. However I think ND has enough playmakers on defense to create at least one, possible 2-3 turnovers. Manti Te'o is a beast, and how Michigan deals with him will have a major impact on this.

As for Michigan's defense, whilst they did improve against Alex Carder, there were times when they just looked exactly the same as last year's team; the opening drive being a prime example. This time ND probably won't have to play 3 quarterbacks, and will Michael Floyd in great form, I can see the Irish putting up a lot of points and spoiling the party.

If Michigan wants to win this game, I think they basically just have to leave Denard in the shotgun at much as possible. As RR said this week, that's his home, that's where he operates best. Play him in the shotgun, give him 15 QB runs in the game, do whatever it takes to beat the Irish!

Final Prediction: Michigan 31; Notre Dame 42

I know this is a very pessimistic prediction given that ND just lost to USF at home, but their defense was solid and if they sort out their turnovers, they are a very dangerous team.

22 comments:

  1. Unfortunately I agree with some of your points. If ND can hold onto the ball, it could get ugly. Also, I liked that last week, our defense made ADJUSTMENTS, however that bad part of that is, they had to make them, meaning they weren't in the right in the first place. I don't think Michigan can afford 2-3 drives being out of place, ND will take full advantage if that is true.

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  2. I think ND will score a lot of points. Their RB is very dangerous and I think if we focus too much on Floyd, he could really hurt us.

    What really worries me is that Rees threw for almost 300yds and 2 TDs in 1 half vs a solid D. They basically moved the ball at will vs USF

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  3. @GoTwins

    Rees had big numbers, but dont forget that most of those came against prevent defense. USF sent a 3 man rush and dropped everybody else back. Rees sat in the pocket for days, eventually somebody will get open. He also threw 2 int's in that same half.

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  4. Lalondtm:

    Not exactly true. They played prevent for probably the last couple drives of the 4th quarter. They did play a little more conservative and didnt blitz a ton. Also, 1 of those 2 ints went off of his WRs facemask, who for some reason wasnt even looking at the qb while running a crossing route

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  5. Every Year all I hear is how many good players ND has and how good they are going to be. Whats so different from this years ND team to last years team that we beat? Michigan has more returning players than ND. The guy that killed us last year was there TE and he is gone. Our offense is going to be the same or better than last years and are defense still might not be great but its still much better than last year. No prediction of the score, I will just keep it simple Michigan WINS.

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  6. I have no idea what to think....yes I have Michigan winning but I'm more than a little worried. I just got dry yesterday from last weeks game but don't care because.....hey we won. It will likely be raining again tomorrow....I don't care how wet I get there.....just want the win. ND regularly comes in overrated. I hope that we are being underrated but don't know. I said before......I didn't think we looked awful last week except for that first drive. We didn't show anybody very much of our play book and yes, we blitxed alot but we did it because it worked. I have to believe that we can do more than blitz. Our D is definitely better but our O is just different but I think that to get the win we're going to have to unleash DR. We can't afford to be down too much before we adjust our game plan. Could come down to last possession...

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  7. My goodness, what's the matter with some of you guys? Again I will tell you that some of you have been jaded by the ineffectual crap head of a coach we had for 3 grueling years.

    Benji, I've been a fan of the U-M for twice as long as you've been alive, I don't think you have a good enough appreciation of the history of the program, reading about is just not as telling as living it.

    As a U-M historian, Hoke get's it, trust me. This is different than what we've been seeing, okay? 2 years ago, Weis and Clausen were gonna fuck us up and then last year we were going to lose in South Bend just because everyone said so. And that was with DickRod as coach.

    A pumped up crowd, 1st night game, a more baffling Offense for the opposition to contend with, a more experienced QB for us as well as the whole team for that matter, a Defense that can make adjustments, what a concept. WMU scored pretty methodically on their 1st drive, yes. But we proceeded to outscore them 34-3 the rest of the way and were going in for the kill had the rain not saved them from further embarrassment. WMU is gonna contend in their conference and Calder will play on Sunday's.

    People just need to understand this. We will kick ND's arse Saturday Night!!! Balla had it correct, listen to him and me of course. Go Blue and shut those mother fucking Domers the hell up!!!

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  8. Hoke certainly does 'get it', that doesn't mean our players can outperform Notre Dame's on any given Saturday!

    We've beaten Notre Dame the last two years because of outstanding QB performances, first from Forcier, and then from Denard last year. But this year our defense HAS to step up it's game, we can't just rely on Denard winning the game, or their QB getting injured.

    Obviously I'm hoping Michigan can pull off the win, but if I were betting 20 bucks on it, I'd go ND at this point.

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  9. Hell if we are that bad which I dont see then instead of 8 + wins we should be prepared for only 2 or 3. I always have faith but most of you guys have written this game off or at least it sounds like it. I guess I just see us as allot better this year and I know were better than the high school team that just beat them. Plan and simple Michigan wins GO BLUE!!!

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  10. Michigan will find a way to win, and I will be there in person to witness it. Framing my ticket after this.

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  11. I can see everyones point and I had ND winning this game a week ago. But I have changed my mind and I am thinking more positive on this game. I am going with a blow out win. ND will keep it close in the first half then the D will dial up the right pressure and blitzes. Forcing turnovers. I am predicting at least a 17 point win.

    I am thinking Big Will will get alot of playing time up front. His size could help Martin clog up the middle.

    Coach Mattison will earn his money today and remind people why his is one of the best D cord. in the game.

    I would love to see UM start the game off with a deep ball to JR. Just to scare ND right off the bat.

    Its going to be along wait till 8 o'clock. To all the people going to the game be safe and Be LOUD. GO BLUE!!

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  12. Like I said it's all on woolfolk. If he plays well and stays in, we're gonna hold them down. Mattison is installing a stop the run, bend but don't break defense. ND's O is going to get some yrds, no doubt. When you don't give up the big plays the field gets smaller and smaller to defend. Hold them to a FG and it's a win. Continue to do so and it's a blowout!

    Mic said it well (for lack of better word) DR didn't get showcased. Push come to shove, our O is gonna look just like it did last year bar a few minor changes. We can, and pry will put up 500 yrds....

    We should win 38-27

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  13. Oh I would love it if the suckeyes lost to Toledo. Lmao down 15-7. Go other Ohio!!

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  14. LOVE the game day passion you guys are showing!

    My thoughts and sentiments are in line with Mick's.

    Unfortunately, a nagging presence has made itself know to me of late.

    It crystallized in my mind when I read that Michigan has not beaten ND three times in a row in 111 years. That, added to my recollections that it really was remarkable that Michigan won those last too games, made me aware of something I never realized.

    My realization was that we are simply due to lose this game. It's like a cosmic pendulum, that simply must swing the other way, and allow ND to finish victorious.

    That's my irrational fear. My rational analysis?

    1. The receiving corps is not nearly as good as last year. Granted, we would have probably lost if not for Floyd's freak leg laceration, but Tate is gone. Riddick and Jones have issues.

    2. Rees did not see much pressure last week, let alone disguised coverages mixed with blitz packages. I watched the entire USF game. Their D was about as vanilla and predictable as possible. The stats were distorted by the circumstances, as was well documented on MGoBlog.

    3. We have better coaches.

    4. We have at least equal special teams.

    5. Our QB is a year more experienced, and we have a complete mismatch at QB.

    6. Our LT is coming into his own.

    7. We will be able to run outside, and exploit the edges. Te'o will not be much of a factor.

    8. Or WR's, although they get no respect, are better as a group that ND's. Our RB's are not far off either, if not equal.

    9. We will not stop Floyd. But, we did not stop him last year, either.

    10. It's at home, it 's historic, it's throwbacks, it's been a game week like no other. The last game I saw a team play completely together, exceeding the sum of it's parts for an entire game, was Lloyd's send off victory.

    This will be Hoke's welcoming party!

    Go Blue!

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  15. college game day had mannequins of the retro jerseys. However, they covered up Michigans, and said they changed it, that not even the players know what they look like. Thoughts?

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  16. Word has it a patch honoring Desmond Howard.

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  17. Oh boy would it make my day if Toledo pulls this game out...

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  18. bleh stupid ohio state...they're going to have problems all year if they struggled against toledo

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  19. Running late...........just on the way to AA now. Homeland Security is being very vigilant today...... lal..... I don't know if they changed Jerseys or not but if they did there will be some pissed off fans who have already bought the retros. Stopped to pick up my brother in law in Huntington Woods and had to watch the end of the OSU game. Was so hoping the Rockets would pull off the upset. Please .......let's have one happy ending today. GO BLUE!!!

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  20. Where are you going to be BGN? I'm on campus right now, holding off on the partying since the game isn't till 8!

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