Wednesday, 2 November 2011

Mid Week game prediciton

I'm going back home from University tomorrow and will be busy for the next few days, so I'll do this week's prediction now. For the record, I was pretty close on the Purdue score last Saturday! Anyway, on to Iowa...

The Hawkeyes obviously had a terrible result last week losing to Minnesota, but that doesn't mean we are going to walk over them this week, especially not in their home stadium. Iowa is undefeated at home this year, and on paper has a talented enough team to cause Michigan some serious problems on Saturday.

Firstly, on offense they have a running back that went over 250 yards last week in Marcus Coker, and then they have a QB with a passing rating of 178.3 at home. Lets also not forget the schools all time TD receptions leader, Marvin McNutt. I haven't seen much of Iowa's O-Line, but from a skill position perspective, they look good on offense. Michigan defended the run quite well last week, but struggled against MSU in run D, so that is a concern.

For Michigan's offense, the key is getting Fitzgerald Tousiannt into the game early to take some of the pressure off Denard. The health of our OL is a concern here. If Michigan can establish the run early and not turn the ball over through passing, then I think they can put up a fair amount of points against this average Hawkeyes D who have conceded 27, 31 and 24 points to Pitt, NW and Indiana respectively at home.

Despite the success of our defense this year, I am worried about Iowa's offense this week, but if Michigan can force a couple of turnovers it should be enough to pull out the win. For this, having Jordan Kovacs back would be huge, but I guess we don't want to rush him back. In the end I think Michigan just does enough on offense to pull out a close win.

Prediction: Iowa 27 ; Michigan 30

Sidenote: Unfortunately I won't be watching the game this Saturday, as I've somehow got myself into the Directors box at Arsenal Football Club for their match against West Brom! Still, I'll probably be following the game on ESPN's scorecenter!

50 comments:

  1. Benji,
    I don't have the game that close. I thinking UM 27-Iowa 10 . The only Iowa player that really scare me is Mcnutt. Keep him in check and UM win.I was off by a total of three points last week. Go Blue

    Have fun at the futbol game.

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  2. I think Iowa is a 2 man team in McNutt and Coker demard will be denard and we win this game by 10

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  3. But if Michigan can't get pressure on Vandenburg, he could light up a Michigan pass defense that is still suspect at times.

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  4. I think UM will blitz more this game.

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  5. I don't think Vandenburg will light up our defense. Their only threat is McNutt, if we can shut him down (countess) we'll be able to get enough pressure on Vandenburg before his other options get open.

    I'm more worried about Coker. Sure his 250 game was against Minnesota, but he's been good all year. We need to be able to stop the run. I don't think our offense will have any problem with Iowa though, their pass defense is bad and their rush defense is even worse. Their pass defense actually works in our favor, since Drob loves to throw a bombs down the field, if we can get some matchups that put our WR against their safeties, it could be lights out. They have two good cornerbacks, but Iowa's safety play is really bad.

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  6. Vermaelen is back, Gervinho is settling in well, RVP is just killing it, and Ramsay is performing well in Wilsheres absence. Looks like they'll be recouping their midfield losses with Marvin Martin and possibly Eden Hazard soon as well, unless the Podolski or Goetze interest gain any traction. Hope they spend their money well. (also hope they stop selling all of their best players to Barca for once)

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  7. Rivals is comparing anthony standifer to marlin Jackson! Sounds like with countress, incoming freshman Wilson... And whoever else jumps in board, we have a lot to look forwad to in the secondary. Come to think of it, the defense with linebackers, secondary, and d line sounds very good in the future... In the words of Bart Scott... CAN'T WAIT!!!

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  8. Sorry to get off topic, but I heard Sam Webb on the radio earlier and he said Mitch McGary to UM is pretty much a done deal. I hope he is right - UM b-ball hasn't gotten a top flight recruit in about 15 years.

    As far as the game, I think it will be a tough test for UM but they will get it done. Their defense looks more impressive each time out and they are doing it with 3 freshman starting and two subbing in. The future looks bright.

    UM 31, Iowa 17

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  9. Hey guys I'm kinda new to recruiting (started to follow at the beginning of fall camp). I have a few questions. 1. I know hoke has brought in a very good class but how good is the overall class coming out of high school compared to 2010 and 2011 2. What will be the position of need in the 2013 class?

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  10. Sorry for keeping off topic, but Dunn was asked if he was s committed to Ohio and he said... "Kind of. I'm still thinking about stuff. I want to check the other schools out." Sounds like he's getting closer to decommitting. Also Yuri Wright said, "I would say Rutgers and Michigan are two schools that would be pretty hard to say no.to them"...

    Unfortunately I think Michigan will struggle in Iowa City, maybe cuz of the pink locker room.... BUT, they will still come away with a victory, 24-21. Go Blue!

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  11. Hello folks. This is my first post although I've been following the blog for about a year now. I thought I'd throw in a tidbit that you may not know and might find interesting regarding the pink locker room. The idea may have only been to embarrass the opposing team but there may have been another motive.

    Many years ago the US Navy did a study of the effects of different colors on people. It was found that a certain shade of pink had a very calming effect, to the point that it could slow a person's heart rate and actually be dangerous in some situations. I worked in county government for over 20 years and our Juvenile Detention center had a "pink room" completely painted in that very shade to be used to calm down rowdy delinquents. But they had a strict time limit on how long the kid could be left in the room. In the end they repainted is white to avoid any problems (translate lawsuits) should anything go wrong.

    I wonder what shade of pink the Iowa locker room was painted? :)

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  12. Michigan will roll through the Hawkeyes! The creativity of Mattison's blitz packages will confuse Vandenberg and Michigan will definitely be the best team Iowa has played this year (W vs.Tenn. Tech; L at IowaSt; W vs.Pitt;W vs Louisiana-Monroe; L at Penn St; W vs. NW; W vs. Indiana; L at Minnesota). Iowa is dangerous at home, but overall I see Denard being the old Denard this week and Hoke's power running game being successful. I'm am an Iowa native and unfortunately I see far too many of Iowa's games and they have a few playmakers and are fundamentally sound (solid OL and back 7), but they generally lack team speed. If we take McNutt away and force Vandenberg to check down, Iowa has NO other dangerous weapons. It is on the road which may help Iowa, but Michigan will do what they want to offensively and defensively will confuse them.

    Michigan 38
    Iowa 13

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  13. BlueSweden,
    UM needs RBs, WRs and as aways O-D Linemen.

    Ben Braden told TomVH that he is up to 6'-7" and 325lbs. This is good for UM.

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  14. Pre-season pick was 24-20 Michigan. I would be inclined to stay with Michigan but think they could score another 7.

    More useless facts from GoBlueNorth:

    I have adjust these figures to include the Western Game (because I can!!!) I adjusted the outcome of the final Western score to include an extra (4th quarter) of proportionate scoring (again, because I can).

    After 8 games

    Michigan has allowed 116 points against compared to 240 last season. Michigan has scored 289 compared to 283 last season. Our offense remains close to what it was last year. The difference, and I don't need to tell you is the DEFENCE. We've allowed less that half the points we did by this time last year. Point differential for 2010 was 1.17 and this year it's 2.49 (that's how many points we score for each point scored by our opposition).

    BTW - for you purest, without the Western Game, the differential is 2010 - 1.10 and 2011 - 2.36

    Also BTW - Mitch McGary just went BLUE!!

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  15. MITCH MCGARY IS A WOLVERINE. SAYS IT ALL!

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  16. I have a bad feeling about the Iowa game. I think Iowa is going to come out running the ball angry on Saturday and that ball control and time of possession is going to play a big role. I know this seems contrary to what most people are predicting, especially considering the fact that that Iowa has a solid QB and WR combo in Vandenberg and McNutt. My gut feeling is that this will be a low scoring game but that Iowa will win by a narrow margin. Michigan 14, Iowa 17.

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  17. "I've got a bad feeling about this..." -every character to ever be in a Star Wars movie, yet it keeps getting better every time you hear it.

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  18. So, they have have UM giving up 117 points total, but that's ALSO counting the points the OFFENSE has given up to other teams, such as the pick six against MSU. (I don't recall if those are the only points we have given up to another defense this season or not?) Those points don't go against the Defense, though they may for some people. They shouldn't, though, when the defense wasn't even on the field at that point. ESPN has UM averaging giving up 14.6 points on DEFENSE, but if you take out just the one pick six against MSU, it drops down to 13.75 PPG on DEFENSE.
    Anyway, UM will win by at least 10, if not more. Hard to say whether it will start out like the NW game, slow and pull away later, or like the Minn game. IT won't get out of hand like that game did. The earlier game times have actually FAVORED UM this year. The only exception is the MSU game. All other early start games, UM has rolled. Struggled in the later games, especially the REALLY late games. I don't care how young the players may be who are now playing, as Hoke says, "The best players will play no matter grade or age or experience." That's how it should be, and the Defense has stepped up because of it. Purdue scores 7, really, because of 1 play which UM hasn't given up really all year, unlike the past 3 years when it was constant. Hold MSU to just 21, NW scores 24, yet put up 59 last week, 7 against SDSU who was supposed to have a solid QB AND RB, 3 to EMU who is actually one of the best teams in the MAC this year, and 10 to WMU who has a QB who is supposed to be very solid and high draft pick. I'd say our Defense has stepped up and proven themselves enough this year already.
    I said beginning of the year, if WMU scores 10 or less, we win 10 games. 20 or less we could be 8-4. Anymore than 20 and we'd be in trouble. So far, 10 wins looks VERY possible, and could even end up with 11, possibly 12, before a bowl game. I know plenty of UM fans who are still skeptical about the Defense, but I'm not, and not about this team this year. The ONLY question mark on the season is some of the play calling. Either go with Gardner for a series or not at all. The back and forth hurts him, hurts DRob and hurts the whole Offense. IF Gardner is in, keep DRob in too, like they've been doing. I'm still waiting for some type of throw back pass or sweep action type pass. Hopefully we don't have to see that this weekend, but it HAS to be coming eventually

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  19. What idiot said that Michigan was only going to score 14 points!?!?! Oh... maybe that was the autumn whiskey talking.

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  20. Is UM in Keith Marshall top 5?

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  21. Jer89:

    Unfortunately no. Im pretty sure his top 5 are ND, Georgia, Clemson, Florida and North Carolia

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  22. I really don't think we take a RB in this class unless Dunn wants to commit. We don't need one, and we have one next year, Kamani Thomas. The dude looks excellent on film, and he's ALL about Michigan.

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  23. "“If it was my choice, I’d sign with Michigan,” Thomas told the AJC. “I’ve always been a Michigan fan. My dad is a Michigan fan. I’ve got a lot of family up there.”"

    Kamani Thomas

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  24. Penn State only let Iowa score 3, Minnesota held Iowa to 21, Michigan will hold them to around 10 I think. Iowa allowed 31 at home against Northwestern and 24 at home against Indiana, I'm guessing Michigan spanks them on offense (turnovers aside) for around 40.

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  25. Why the hell would Marshall wanna go to ND, just mystifying to me. Keith, don't go to ND, that's my advice to you. I don't care if we get him or not. If he was smart he'd want to come to Michigan, Hoke and Borges are going to build a strong ground game always going forward.

    As much as they say they want to have a feature back, I really feel like we're going to have way too much talent for just one back, we're going to be loaded everywhere with the recruiting Hoke and Staff will be conducting.

    My prediction M 28 Iowa 17

    Jcreager, your post was outstanding and I've been trying to point out to people that this D is for real. Here's another stat for you, M is #1 in Red Zone Defense, yeah that's right #1. If there is anyplace you want your D to stop people is inside your 20 yd line.

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  26. This is a trap game for the wolverines here. But I say that meaning from the past three years. I think Hoke will have them ready.
    Michigans defense VASTLY improved in defenders all running to the ball. The biggest thing for me is the lack of big plays against our defense.
    Offensively the Gophers got 22 on this defense. and Marquis gray looked fast against the Hawkeyes. And we all know who the fastest QB in the big ten is.

    Iowa however is a tough place to play, and I would not end up like Sparty did last year. In then end I see this team being well prepared and taking care of buisness. Id also like to get some thoughts on the McGary signing. After seeing such a highly touted prospect come to Michigan for our basketball team, do ya think that gives thought to the other top echelon athletes in football who might take another look at the school? Id also like to point out a huge thank you to those DOLTS at the NBA... cause without the lock out, some people considered McGary a lottery pick... =)

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  27. Let me pose this question as well... If your Zach Banner who wants to play both football and basketball.. does the commit of a guy like Mcgary give you more of a reason to go to a school with not only a football program back on the rise, but a basketball program as well?

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  28. All I want for my birthday is a UM WIN. And maybe a win for my other favorite teams Minn., Wake Forrest and Indiana. And if you want to know why they are my other favorite teams look at who they are playing. GO BLUE!!

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  29. @Mick

    One reason he wants to go to ND is one of his best friends, Ronald Darby, is a solid ND commit and they have wanted to play college ball together for awhile.

    Also, ND has shown this year that RBs can really thrive in their offense.

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  30. Denard should be 5-7 throwing after that first td. Hemingway had 2 big time drops, one to end the second drive.

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  31. We will be lucky to win one game the these last 4 weeks. Sorry to say it but we are not a ten win team... Iowa is pounding us

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  32. excuse my french but the refs fucked us on that game ending

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  33. We need to stop putting Gardner in the game... honestly every time Robinson got a big play we'd try to put Gardner in. Let Denard get in a rhythm please

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  34. Is there any reason why U of M can't get calls made in their favor on the road in the Big Ten when they're the correct call?? The lack of a pass interference call on the last play of the game was pathetic. Calling an incomplete pass when you have the replay to back you up if you miss the call on a game tying touchdown was pathetic. Was this the same crew that worked the MSU game earlier this year? There was another pass interference call that was missed towards the end of the first half as well (I think on the tipped interception when they were driving).

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  35. It shouldn't be a matter of the refs "f-ing" us. We had what, 3-4 good drives that game? I'm in Afghanistan and try to follow the game online, but I think that was about it. Against a defense that isn't all that good. Our defense played well enough for us to win; this time our offense can't live up. DRob once again, sub 50% passing. No title contender has a QB who consistently puts up such poor numbers. We ride with him, we die with him. The next 3 weeks may be disastrous... but as UM fans we have seen this script before. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

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  36. It's get everything to do with it. If you didn't watch the game and only followed it online then you didn't see the 2 blown calls at the end of the game and the one at the end of the first half. We're supposed to play one opponent, not the zebras also. The fact of the matter is that the DR and DG in the game at the same time experiment just doesn't work. It was completely scouted this week and you can expect more of the same against OSU and Nebraska. They will absolutely not be beaten by that formation. Having 2 qbs who split time consistently almost never works. It completely kills the rhythm of the players on offense as well as the qb playing as well. Once they stopped messing around with that, Michigan moved the ball more consistently. Hopefully the coaches recognize that DG just isn't ready yet after that fiasco of a drive he led when DR was hurt.

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  37. Justin- Drob had sub 50% completions due to taking long shots on the final drive, and mainly dropped balls by the receivers...Denard was lights out the final 2 drives, it was a bad break with the referees, 2 major pass interference calls blown, and the touchdown called incomplete...You cannot blame Denard for that.

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  38. akmed- I totally agree about the formation being a bust, but I am glad that Devin Gardner got to lead the drive, you can't expect him to get better in that formation, but leading a drive running the actual offense was good. It would have been a different game at the end if Fitz was in the game at rb, too bad he was hurt.

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  39. The point of the "don't blame the refs" is that if we are the team everyone thought we were as dictated by all the score predictions then we never should have been in the situation we were in at the end. Fine, bad calls were made, but let's see: Coker ran 29 times and Vandenberg completed 14 passes... 9 of which went to McNutt!!! What did everyone say, take those 2 away and we should be fine. That didn't happen. -2 in turnovers. Can't do that on the road. They supposedly had the worse run defense and pass defense and yet our offense couldn't exploit any of those weaknesses. Blue Gopher doesn't seem to be such an idiot with his calls after all.

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  40. Damn I never thought I'd say this but I'm done with Denard at QB. He cant hit a WIDE open guy thats more than 20 yards down field. I dont know if Gardner is the answer but fuck I'm sick of the losses because we cant pass the ball down field. This team isn't any better than last years team. One last thing,we will lose by 30 to Bama next year..

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  41. Denard missed Roundtree wide open, but did lead the team down the field none the less. He will get this system down in the offseason, and everyone seems to be forgetting that this is a new system/coaching staff. We should keep things in perspective.

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  42. I'm not blaming Denard; I love him still. But something needs to be adjusted when things are stalling as badly as they seemed. Doesn't it seem like our offense didn't start clicking until our backs were against the wall? 24-9 and then BAM! Touchdown. The subsequent drive starts out great, 20-yd completion and then 3 & out. The last furious, frantic drive looked great, but in the end was the equivalent of just garbage yards. It's just frustrating seeing the potential.

    What the heck happened with the long touchdown run called back?

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  43. Yes you are right Jared but you are forgetting one thing,Denard wasn't a very good QB even in highschool. The guy is very limited to what he can do as a passer and thats not good. Iowa has a decent defense,what do you think Neb and OSU will do to him?? They will shut him down like every good defense he has ever faced has done. OSU,MSU,Miss St,Iowa,PSU,Wis all good defenses all shut Denard down.

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  44. Denard is a phenomenal athlete but a terrible passer. Honestly his missed so many wide open guys and all he does is try to bomb it long.

    Fact is, his WRs have been bailing him out all year, especially vs ND where he made terrible throws that our WRs made great plays on.

    Our D played really well but this offense is very limited with Denard at QB.

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  45. I completely agree about the frustration with all of the potential, but this is just the first year, timing is off and the QB and Receivers aren't clicking until that adrenalin rush of crunch time..

    Worm- I don't doubt anything when it comes to this coaching staff, Al Borges will be able to get Denard to be a more consistent passer. I just think it's a wait and see how he finishes the year and goes through the offseason.

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