Tuesday, 16 August 2011

The season approaches...

This weekend hasn't provided much news in terms of recruiting; there were no commits, no visits, not even any good interviews surfacing on the net. This is partly because there are so few players on UM's board, but mainly because people are now starting to focus on actual football! Summer practice has started, and whilst I haven't heard that much about how the team is looking, I'm going to take a quick break from recruiting to casually predict how this season will unfold for UM!

Game 1: WMU

Western Michigan were apparently meant to give Michigan a close game back in 2009 when they had Tim Hiller at QB, but they really struggled in the Big House. I don't think they are as strong as in 2009, and this is basically the same UM team but two years older, so it's a guaranteed win.

Prediction: Win!..............Chances of Prediction being correct: 97%


Game 2: Notre Dame

This is obviously the first real test of the season, and it should be a very tough game. ND finished 2010 very strongly and will be motivated after two tough losses in recent years to UM. However! This is a big rivalry game and Brady Hoke will definitely have the troops fired up, and given that the game is in Michigan Stadium, I'd be awfully tempted to bet on UM.

Prediction: Win!..............Chances of Prediction being correct: 51%


Game 3: EMU

Not much explanation needed here; there will be riots if Michigan lose this one, it's probably the easiest game of the year.

Prediction: Win!...............Chances of Prediction being correct: 98%


Game 4: SDSU

SDSU were a good football team last year, and bring back a few good players. Ryan Lindley at QB is a very strong QB and the little running back will be a threat too. This game will certainly test Michigan's defense, but I think the offense should win them this one fairly comfortably.

Prediction: Win!..............Chances of Prediction being correct: 75%


Game 5: Minnesota

The Golden Gophers are a poor team...

Prediction: Win!.............Chances of Prediction being correct: 84%


Game 6: @ Northwestern

After 5 home games to start, the Wolverines hit the road and are given their first loss in my book. Dan Persa is a very good dual threat QB, and if he's as good as last year, he could rip through Michigan's D and rack up some serious points.

Prediction: Loss.............Chances of Prediction being correct: 60%


Game 7: @ MSU

This won't go down well, but I'm predicting two losses on the bounce for UM here! MSU as much as it pains me to say it, will have a good team here lead by a senior QB who has the potential to be drafted. Plus it's in East Lansing. Hoke will have the team pumped up, but I think UM will lose this in a close one.

Prediction: Loss..............Chances of Prediction being correct: 55%


Game 8: Purdue

After two straight losses, the schedule now gives Michigan an easy chance to redeem themselves against a good, but very beatable Purdue team. In the Big House I don't think Purdue will have an answer to UM's offense.

Prediction: Win!.............Chances of Prediction being correct: 80%


Game 9: @ Iowa

Iowa have lost Ricky Stanzi and a few other big names like Adrian Clayborn, so I really like Michigan's chances here to pull off a big away win. They actually should have beaten Iowa in 2009, but unfortunately DRob threw a bad INT on what would have been a game winning drive. Expect no such mistakes this time around as Michigan becomes bowl eligible!

Prediction: Win!...........Chances of Prediction being correct: 55%


Game 10: @ Illinois

This will be a very close game, but I'm going to be a bit pessimistic and pick Illinois. They should be a decent football team this year, and Michigan might already have one eye on Nebraska next week, and OSU after that.

Prediction: Loss............Chances of Prediction being correct: 55%


Game 11: Nebraska

The Cornhuskers are a good team, maybe even a team that could win the Big Ten this year, but for some reason I fancy Michigan to pull off the upset. Taylor Martinez is a very hit and miss type of player, and Denard Robinson could really show him up in this game. Nebraska's D might be well prepared for UM, but I still like the Wolverines here in a close one.

Prediction: Win!............Chances of Prediction being correct: 52%


Game 12: Ohio

For the first time in ages, it seems like Michigan actually has a good chance to beat the Buckeyes! I still think OSU will be a good team, probably a better team than Michigan; but that doesn't mean UM can't pull off the upset on the day. UM will be pumped, and despite Luke Fickell's best efforts, I don't think OSU will be ready for the new found intensity that Michigan is going to bring to The Game.

Prediction: Win!............Chances of Prediction being correct: 60(!!)%


That gives Michigan a 9-3 record if I've counted correctly; with all three losses coming on the road. Overall this is a very optimistic prediction, wins against Nebraska AND OSU might seem unlikely now, but who knows; Michigan might look like a different team come November.

Anyway, this post was just a bit of hype for the season. Feel free to post your own version in the comments section, I'll be interested to see how many of you have Michigan playing for the national title!!!!!

111 comments:

  1. I'd like to re-visit this post after the first game. Granted it's against WMU, but I just want to see how the defense is going to play. I want to see how aggressive they're going to be, and the type of pressure they're going to get with the front four. After I'm able to get a feel for the defense, which we all know is the big question mark, then I'll feel better about predicting W/L outcomes. I will however say this, I would not be surprise at all if Michigan ends up playing in Indianapolis on December 3rd!

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  2. Here goes nothing:

    Western Michigan W 34-20 90%
    Notre Dame W 20-17 55%
    Eastern Michigan W 38-13 95%
    San Diego State W 24-20 70%
    Minnesota W 31-17 85%
    Northwestern W 27-20 55%
    Michigan State L 31-34 60%
    Purdue W 31-20 75%
    Iowa W 24-20 55%
    Illinois W 35-31 65%
    Nebraska L 24-31 70%
    Ohio State L 30-38 80%

    that gives me a 9-3 record......but I think we lose one of these three - Notre Dame, Northwestern or Iowa. Can't pick the loss but I think we end up 8-4 and no, we will not be going to Indy this year. I do agree with Brandon but would like to revisit my picks after the Notre Dame game. I would like to see what both lines look like against a solid opponent.

    Just adding my wife's pick so that we have more on the board to consider.


    Western Michigan W 34-17
    Notre Dame L 27-28
    Eastern Michigan W 42-10
    San Diego State W 31-28
    Minnesota W 30-10
    Northwestern W 31-28
    Michigan State L 21-28
    Purdue W 36-14
    Iowa W 28-24
    Illinois W 28-21
    Nebraska L 20-27
    Ohio State L 27-35

    I have no idea how things will look this year. We could be totally surprised or utterly disappointed.
    A quick question to add to your picks. What record do you think it takes for fans to think of this season as a success.

    I say 7-5 keeps the fans satisfied

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  3. I wish I could be as optimistic as everyone else seems to be.


    Western Michigan W
    Notre Dame L
    Eastern Michigan W
    San Diego State W
    Minnesota W
    Northwestern L
    Michigan State L
    Purdue W
    Iowa L
    Illinois L
    Nebraska L 20-27
    Ohio State L 27-35

    Final Record - 5-7

    Losing season for Hoke's first season. He will build from here and probably rack up 8 or 9 wins in second season. This team is just not set up with his kind of players. He hasn't had enough time to fill holes with new recruits. We all obviously know Hoke is a madman on the recruiting trail so that will come in time. Give Hoke 3 full recruiting classes and UM will be a perennial top 10 again.

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  4. Western Michigan W
    Notre Dame W
    Eastern Michigan W
    San Diego State W
    Minnesota W
    Northwestern L
    Michigan State L
    Purdue W
    Iowa W
    Illinois W
    Nebraska W
    ohio W

    10 wins. Two tough road losses in a row galvanize the team, behind Senior leadership.

    They go on to lose the inaugural Big Ten Championship game to WI, in double OT, after DR is knocked out of the game trying to pick up a first down on the run. DG throws one late, over the middle, in the second overtime to end the game with a heart breaking INT.

    They then go on to a second tier bowl game,and get beat by a reborn Oklahoma team, looking to salvage a disappointing season after being ravaged by key injuries, and losing the Big 12 Championship to Texas.

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  5. GBN-

    I think everyone expected at least an 8 win season without a coaching change.

    With it, I think 7 wins, a return to MI football, and a strong bowl performance will keep grumbling to a minimum.

    That's IF the losses are hard fought, close, and the team demonstrates clear gradual improvement in all facets of the game.

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  6. Blue Marrow

    Agreed. 7 works if they play tough, smash mouth football and don't take any major spankings. They just need to look the way Brady Hoke talks.

    Did anybody else out there get to Fan Day???

    I don't want to screw up Benji's thread here so please only answer my other questions if you give Benji your picks.

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  7. WMU-W
    ND-W
    Eastern-W
    San Diego-W
    Minnesota-W
    NW-L
    Mich.St-L
    Purdue-W
    Iowa-W
    Illinois-W
    Nebraska-L
    Ohio State-W

    Nuff said....

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  8. WMU (W)41-10
    ND (W/OT)27-24
    EMU (38-9)
    SDSU (W)29-16
    MINN (W)42-17
    NW (W)37-28 (Persa Top 5 QB in NFL draft, but defense is the question)
    MSU (W) 30-21 (not on Hoke's watch)
    PURD (W)38-14
    IOWA (W)24-14 ILLI (W)35-24
    NEB (L) 31-28 (Michigan Offense vs. Nebraska Defense - I honestly see Michigan winning this one b/c its in Ann Arbor, and Nebraska Offense will be above average @ best (Especially this time of year when they technically have no QB - Bubba to KC))
    OSU (W)28-20 (Hoke refuse to lose this game)

    This is Michigan!!! Michigan will prevail and smash all doubters.

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  9. Which teams, if any, would you guys see enter our conference if this "shake-up" happens in the future: (2) the most and I believe Missouri, Oklahoma OR Texas, consolation ND

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  10. WMU-they suck, Blowout Win
    ND- has to play us at the big house, under the lights, they lack a definate QB, and just came off a trap game vs South Florida. Win in last minute
    SDSU-lost their top four receivers from last year, their success was based off of great coaching from hoke and Borges. Win, not a blowout but will never be a serious threat.
    Northwestern-QB coming off a nasty injury, defense has questions, they haven't proven they can win close big games, and they are coming off a tough road game at Illinois. Win in a close one
    MSU- lost a lot in the trenches, will struggle much more than last year. They have a bye week while we play a tough road game vs northwestern. Loss in a thriller.
    Purdue-not a good team. Blowout win
    Iowa- this is a rebuilding year for them. Win but since it's in Iowa city, it's closer than expected
    Nebraska-they are better than us, but as the season goes on we will get better and they will get worse. They are coming off a tough road game at Penn state. Winner winner chicken dinner.
    Ohio- I have a feeling they will be lacking most of the tat five due to suspensions. They will be worn down from a tough season. Win
    I believe there should be another loss, I just can't determine where. We still make it to the big ten championship.
    Wisconsin- They are better than us, loss after a courageous comeback by Michigan comes up just short
    We make it to the BCS as the #2 big ten team, our fan base helps us beat out a more deserving team.
    We get placed in the sugar bowl vs a big east team or BCS buster and win. The faith of the fanbase is completely restored, our recruiting class finishes up with Yuri, Brionte, Payton, and Garnett. We have a top 3 recruiting class and everyone is happy.

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  11. Im predicting 9-3 with losses to ND , Iowa and Nebraska .... But possibly 11-1 cause these games will be very very close

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  12. Reading these comments gets me pumped up. For some reason everytime Hoke is asked about the defense, he has a smile. I believe the defense will be a lot better this year. If the defense can hold oppenents under 25 points a game, then we should be able to win games

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  13. I saw chris wormley at fan day, that was pretty neat. He was just walking around with all the fans, but I don't think anybody else really recognized him.

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  14. Guys, lets not get ahead of ourselves here. Remember this is year 1. 8-10 wins is VERY optimistic. Here is how I see it:

    WMU (W): This is a pretty poor team, should be an easy win,
    ND (L): This will be a very tough game. This ND team will be much different than the team last year. They will most likely win the battle in the trenches as they have very good OLine and DLine.
    EMU (W): Not much to say here
    SDSU (W): Somewhat closer than most would expect but still a W
    Minn (W): This team has no talent
    NW (L): A solid NW team and our first real road test vs a veteran QB.
    MSU (L): Still a good team with 2 very good RBs, 2 playmakers at WR and a very solid QB. This may be the toughest game of the year.
    Purdue (W): Will rebound after a loss to MSU
    Iowa (L): They lose a lot but pound the football for an ugly win.
    Illinois (W): They lose a lot of talent and wont reload
    Nebraska (L): The best defense we will face all year. Their offense will be much improved over last year.
    OSU (W/L): Very tough game to call at this point. Dont overlook them, they still have a lot of talent across the board.

    Overall 7-5 or 6-6. People who are predicting Big 10 championship game are nuts. If you want Michigan football to get back to the way it was, you have to be patient. Its going to take at least til midway through the season for things to start really clicking on defense and there is no way the offense will have a seamless transition to the new system.

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  15. I am on the fence for this year. Half of me says 8-4 and the other half says 6-6.Hope the 8-4 half is right.

    WMU-W not close at all.
    ND-L ND will be better on D
    EMU-W Also not even close.
    SDSU-W Maybe close til the end.
    Minn.-W Not even close.
    NW-W But could go either way. Could depend on Wile.
    MSU-W Just because its time.
    Purdue-W blow out.
    Iowa-W Could go either way.
    Ill.-L revenge
    Neb.-L UM would love to get this one back.
    OSU-L They will be play with a chip on there shoulder.
    So in the end 8-4 not bad. And better then last year.

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  16. I don't see us losing to NW, or MSU. NW has a very good qb in Dan Persa and a good WR. But IMO, thats all they got. They don't have a strong running game (other than persa) they dont have a good defense. I think this will be a shoot out, and our defense comes up with more stops than theirs.

    I also think MSU is going to be a shoot out. They have a great QB, great RB's and good WR's. But they lost their top TE, their middle 3 Oline and the core of there defense, their LB's. I think their DLine is overrated and their secondary should be no better than ours this year. I think DRob and our WR's (and hopefully by this time, an established run game) will be to much, especially if we still run Drob 10-15 times a game.

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  17. Western Michigan W 41-3
    Notre Dame W 31-28
    Eastern Michigan W 38-3
    San Diego State W 44-17
    Minnesota W 35-7
    Northwestern L 28-31
    Michigan State W 38-31
    Purdue W 52-10
    Iowa W 28-17
    Illinois W 45-38
    Nebraska L 20-27
    Ohio State W 38-17

    Final Record - 10-2
    I think we will see an increase in field goals this year, and the offense will be even better this year as I think it will be much more balanced in run/pass plays.
    Also, the defense is going to be significantly better this year, I expect them to keep us in ball games and not lose them for us. A major contribution to the defense is going to be to the fact that the offense will be on the field longer than 2 minutes, and they will score at the end of drives, unlike last year.

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  18. Without venturing to guess every single game I would have to agree with Benji that this is a 9 win team. This is off topic but who would you guess is going to be the next commit(knowing full well that it may not happen for awhile)?

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  19. I think our next commit is going to be a WR. I don't know who, probably payton. Michigan is his lead, and its pretty clear that the coaches want to take one or two WR's. Since we have quite a few that are very interested (payton, darboh, madaris etc) I think our next commit would be a WR. It's still unclear if we take a DB, the coaches "said" they were only taking 1 DT, so I think WR has the best odds.

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  21. I see 7 games (WMU, EMU, SDSU, Minn, Purdue, Iowa, Illinois) that I would consider probable wins for us. I will say we go 6-1 in these games, we will most likely lose one of them somewhere.

    Out of the remaining 5 of our games (Notre Dame, Northwestern, MSU, Nebraska, Ohio State) I see us going 2-3 in these games, all of them will be close but most of these teams have more experience at winning than us and it will enable them to win close games.

    So overall, I say an 8-4 season. Possible chance to go up to 9-3 or even 10-2 depending on how the defense looks out of the gate and how well Borges can modify his offense to fit Denard's strengths. Michigan fans will end the season happy with the on the field results, as well as results on the recruiting trail. Go Blue!!!

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  22. Do you guys think our offense will really improve that much from last year to this year? We are going from a very specific offensive system with players who were suited perfectly for it, especially the QB, to a system that requires different personnel, and we lose probably our best WR for the year and 2 starting Olinemen.

    Im just curious because some seem to think that our offense should make a seamless transition to the Pro-style.

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  23. Western Michigan - W
    Notre Dame - L
    Eastern Michigan - W
    San Diego State - W
    Minnesota - W
    @Northwestern - W
    @Michigan State - L
    Purdue - W
    @Iowa - W
    @Illinois - W
    Nebraska - L
    Ohio State - L

    Overall 8-4
    Road 3-1
    Home 5-3
    Legends Division 3-2
    Leaders Division 2-1

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  24. I am with GoTwins on the offence. I am more concerned about the offence then the defence.DRob is a running QB not a drop back passer, no starting RB yet and 2 WR with back up that that are either to short,to slow or have a hard time hanging on to the ball and a undersize O line.I have concernes. And I hear Hopkins is in the doghouse.

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  25. We'd all love to have a 10 win season in Brady's first season. Will it happen? chances are probably not, but there is always hope. Remember Bo's first season?

    Also, I think we are going to find our RB pretty soon. We're back to Michigan football, and we have the players we need at the position, we just need them to develop. I think Fred Jackson is going to do just that. The way he and his son talk about Thomas Rawls gives me chills. If he gets the starting job, watch out. We could have a good one on our hands, remember Mike Hart? I'm not saying he's the same player, but Hart set the UM record for freshman RB with 1455 yards, and we know Rawls LOVES to break RB records (see Mark Ingram's records that Rawls broke).

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  26. Also, ESPN published an article saying Kellen Jones transfered from Michigan to Oklahoma. Not only is that incorrect, since you have to be enrolled before you can "transfer", but do we still NOT KNOW why he never enrolled? His grades were good enough werent they?

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  27. I heard it was legal problem.

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  28. I just want to put out there that all you guys thinking this years team will win 9-10 games are nuts. Yeah Hoke is putting the team on the right path but he has to get his personnel in there for his system to work and the defense, while better, will still be pretty bad comparatively. Things don't just turn around in one year because we got a new head coach who knows what he is doing. Don't let your fan-ish optimism blind the facts and truth of the matter, this is a 7 win team, 8 wins at best. There's no way around it.

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  29. Hey Brain,

    Remind what coaches like Meyer,Stoops and Tressel did there first year.

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  30. Twins- They are not switching to a pro style, they are transitioning to it. You will see some plays right out of last years book. Shotgun 50% of the time.

    lal-

    Nothing but PURE rumor and unfounded speculation as to why he left (I seem to remember a press release stating that all 2011 recruits had cleared and enrolled. Which would mean that a transfer was either requested by him, the staff, or both.)

    Notice the quote was "eligible to play" and not "will join the team immediately."

    I think that it is entirely possible that the kid has a health problem, and wanted to be closer to home. MI would not comment, because they can't.

    Either that, or some secret thing happened that only the MI coaches know about, and OK could care less about.

    Or, maybe he decided he did not want to be part of a rebuild, and jumped at the chance to play for a team considered by many as a favorite to be playing for it all in January.

    The only thing for certain is that the MI coaches, Jones and his family are the only ones who know for sure, and the secret has been kept, masterfully.

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  31. Brady Hoke said on the radio that his team does not look ready at this point

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  32. What coach makes a proclamation that his team is ready 18 days before their first game?

    Never happened in the history of sports.

    May as well just say "take the next 18 days off, boys, you're too good to keep practicing. And, you might strain something...."

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  33. Just read a DET news article on Jones. Sounds healthy to me.

    It indicates he "decided to leave the program before the season arrived."

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  34. Good news, the competition for MSU's offensive line is 2 converted DT's and a freshman.

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  35. Well obviously it's all speculation but, anything can happen in football. To say we "can't" go 10-2, or "can't" go 5-7 is just b.s. We "could" go 12-0!! Will we? Pry not. Bit we do have the 6th runner up for the hiesmen last year, we do have fr rb's that apparently are peforming very well. We have at least 2 good recievers in rountree & hemmiway. Our o-line is solid. There's no reason why are O shouldn't move forward. Our D has to be better than 110th in the nation.

    Our D wasn't put in the proper place to make plays. Missed assinments one after another. 3-3-5 is garbage!! We have talent on D, out line is decent, lbs have improved and the secondary is back from injurys.

    Bottom line to think were gonna go backwards from last year is just crazy!! Coaches said we are going to play to his strengths. We are going to run out of shotgun 50% of the time. We are going to run drob 10-15 times a game. Compared to 20-30 last year. So that means thier still goin to design run him 15 times a game. Then with him passing more gauranteed he will scramble and run on at least 5 pass attempts. Their just gonna use the rb's more & they should. I prodict 10-2 with losses to NW & nebraska.

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  36. Drob will do better his bigger & more experienced than last year. Everyone seems to forget he set NCAA records last year in both run & pass!! Granted it was alot of bubble screens and quick outs, but you dint think Borges knows that?I'm sure he's watched film he's not stupid!

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  37. A lot of coaches actually do. They're always asked by the press if they're ready or not and some say they have stuff they need to work on, and sometimes they say that they're ready, some do say they're not though. It sounded from Brady Hoke that they had a long way to go though

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  38. 7-5 is what the oddsmakers have the wolverines at, and i think thats about right on target

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  39. I can't believe some people this blog think were going to Los to msu again this year. That just sickens me. Be more positive this is Michigan Football were talking about. Smash mouth Man ball people. Go Blue. Msu sucks plain and simple. Sorry for the harsh words Benji. Lol

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  40. On this and lose sorry for the bad grammer and spelling keybroad sucks

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  41. I remember when Bo took over and there was no hope on beating the greatest team in the history of college football....that team from ohio. I don't believe the cupboard was bare back then and I don't believe its is for Hoke Mattison and Borges. I believe this could be a 10-2 team without much problem. Also there are a lot of people predicting that Nebraska will win the Big 10 or at least their division. To this... I say BS.. Lets look at Penn State when they came into the Big 10. Only 3 Big 10 titles on 20 years and they have got losing records against Michigan and ohio. Also lets keep in mind that Nebraska is coming from an overall inferior conference in the Big 12 and that they have to play the toughest schedule in the Big 10 this year. No real cupcakes this year.

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  42. I think wisky has the best odds to win the conference.

    I also agree with jeremy, nobody on here should be saying we'll lose to MSU. Even if we had High school players and they were National Champs, we have to believe that we can win. Thats the attitude Hoke is instilling into his players, and we as fans should feel the same way. There are such things as good seasons, but the season is not successful without the B1G championship. Thats what he believes, and thats what we should believe.

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  43. MSU will have everything going for them in that game. They will be coming off two weeks of practice for michigan, while michigan will be coming off a very difficult game at northwestern. And they will be at home. This game will be a lot easier to predict a week or two into the season, if our D shows strong improvement and msu's OLine looks bad then I would take Michigan. But there are too many ifs right now.

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  44. I agree with you Mark. My statement about MSU was probably fueled by my hatred for them, but I think you're right. Like Brandon said with the first comment, I'd like to revisit this topic once the season starts and we get a game or two under our belts so we can see how the team is performing.

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  45. Nebraska is not going to go through that tough schedule and then come into AA and beat U-M in game 11 on the road, pleeeease.

    I'm getting a little pissed off that some of you are not taking this into account, don't be jaded by the AWFUL coaching of the past 3 years. We're going to be way better this year, mark my word.

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  46. I predict we will win at least 10 games before the bowl game this year. We're going to be entering an historic golden era in M Football. I fancy myself a U-M Football Historian and that is what my instincts tell me.

    You will see a team that improves as the season wears on, especially on the Defense. Wile has been practicing without a tee for 2 years now in anticipation of college ball, he'll be ready and that part of the team will be vastly improved.

    I live in San Diego and trust me when I say you will be very impressed with the demeanor of Hoke on the sideline on game day, he's calm and cool and has his players ear and respect. That will benefit the team in a big way! Go Blue!!!

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  47. WMU-W
    ND-W
    EMU-W
    SDSU-w
    MINN-W
    NW-W
    MSU-W
    PUR-W
    IOWA-W
    ILL-L
    NEB-L
    OSU-W
    This gives them a 10-2 record and then they will make a trip to the Big then Championship Game and lose and then they will crush south carolina in the capital one bowl. Final Record-11-3

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  48. Amen, Mick! I'm feeling it! You sound like BoLive55 from the freep.

    Phoenix- a beautiful bird born from the ashes of it's former being, or something like that.

    Mark-
    Regarding moo u, I remind you that under those circumstances, the probability of beating them actually increases.

    The better Lucy tees up the football, the higher poor Charlie Brown goes flying. Moo u has always been the Charlie Brown of the NCAA. Just when their fan base starts strutting their stuff, along comes.... well, Alabama, to name the most recent example.

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  49. Tressel went 7-5 his first year at OSU. Meyer went 9-3 with a very talented Florida team in his first year. Bob Stoops went 7-5 in his first year. Saban went 6-5 his first year at MSU, 8-4 his first year at LSU and 7-6 his first year at Alabama. Gene Chizik went 7-5 his first year at Auburn. Pete Carroll went 6-6 his first year at USC.

    But, one thing to remember is that all of these coached had outstanding year 2's. Lets be patient. Historically, it looks like the recipe for success with a new coach is a decent year in year 1 (7-8 wins) and a really good year in year 2.

    Typically, a very successful year (9-10 wins) in year 1 means that the new coach tried a "quick fix" approach for the program. For examples of that, look no further than Charlie Weis or Ty Willingham at ND.

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  50. How many wins do you guys think it will it take for Michigan fans to be satisfied with the year? I say 8, including a possible bowl game win

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  51. Not sure why so many think NW is a loss. Persa will be a little slower, as expected when coming off an archilles injury. Greg Robinson is gone, along with his 1-1-9 defense. I don't see the problem. NW's best asset is Pat Fitzgerald, but he'll be on the sidelines, he's not suiting up. I know NW is decent, but at the end of the day, It's still NW.

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  52. Remember when we were talking about who could be future coaches? Mike Hart has started his coaching career. He's coaching with Ron English over at Eastern, and he's publicly said he wants his coaching career to take him to Michigan.

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  53. If we are talking future RB's coach then I would say Tyrone Wheatley is next in line to replace Fred Jackson. I think he would be a great fit.

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  54. Mike Hart could make a living traveling around the country doing 1 day running back clinics on how to hold onto the football.

    Both he, and TW have a long wait. Fred's not going anywhere for a decade, or more. TW will probably be a HC by then.

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  55. Well Mike Hart has a long way to go before he'd be at UM. He's only, what, 26? And I don't think he'll be the head coach, ever. A RB coach, definitely, but not a HC

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  56. I was hoping Jackson might be retiring sometime in the next 5 years clearing the way for TW to be hired and pay his dues on his way up the UM laddder. I should declare that I have no idea how old Fred Jackson is or what his intentions are...just my 2 cents.

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  57. "Jer89 said... Hey Brain, Remind what coaches like Meyer,Stoops and Tressel did there first year."

    Hey Jer, maybe you should check into things before you spout them out like they support your argument. Stoops and Tressel were both 7-5 in their first years at OU and OSU, which would make my statement saying Blue will go 7-5, or 8-4 at best, look pretty good. Tressel even took over an 8-4 team so he took OSU back a step. I guess I should thank you for supporting my own argument even though you were trying to discredit it. Check your facts in the future.

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  58. Since 5star Shaq Thompson is reportedly very interested in Michigan via 247sports.com...my question is who would yall rather, Shaq Thompson OR Yuri Wright?

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  59. whoa! Settle down brian. You single handedly discredited EVERYONE on this blog by stating that everyone was "nuts" for thinking differently then you. Relax a little, enjoy the blog, and stop attacking other Michigan fans. He simply asked a question bro...

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  60. Maize N'Mike:

    Shaq Thompson is not coming to Michigan. I would be shocked if he left California for anywhere but ND.

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  61. He just wants an invite to the MI-ND game. What kid, and fan of the game, would not?

    Here's a better idea, kid: Tell Alabama you are interested, get a cash advance, and use the money to but plane and game tickets.

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  62. Hey BlueMarrow, thanks for the kind words, I like a lot of the posts you make on this blog. I've been enjoying reading many of the comments for a few months now and finally decided to start posting myself.

    I love the fervor and passion and knowledge of so many on here, our fan base is in good shape people.

    P.S. Sounds like this BoLive55 is a pretty smart and cool dude.

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  63. @GoTwins

    I never said he was nor thought it, just asking for thoughts.

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  64. Maize N'Mike: Didn't mean to be rude, just direct. I thought Jordan Payton was pretty much a Mich lock, now it sounds like he is all Cal. I dont know what to make of him.

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  65. Tell me if I am wrong on this? UM should not be mentioned in the same sentence as Miami,OSU,USC,NC and some other schools. Extra practice is not he same as paying players or boostersand street agents. I just do not think it is fair to compare the violations.

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  66. Easy, Brian. While your facts are correct, it's hard to believe this team will digress any. IMO, the major problem was the coaching on D. The players took horrible angles, arm tackles, didn't know their coverage assignments, etc. Plus, I'll say again, the 1-1-9 didn't do them any favors. I think it's good to see some optimism from the fans and while I think 8-4 would be expected, I would not be surprised to see a 10-2. I believe in these coaches.

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  67. FreshOnes:

    I think this team could be 7-5 or 8-4 and make huge strides from last year. We could really have gone 4-8 last year. ND, Indiana and Illinois were all games that could have easily gone either way last. For a team that wasnt really very good, a lot of things went our way last year in that we won all of our close games.

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  68. Hello all,

    This is my first post on this blog and I think it is a good time for it. I've been reading for several months and I love the passion here. And I was amazed that there was a Michigan fan in the UK! However, while I agree with many of your predictions for this coming season, I believe that every game has to be considered a W no matter who you're playing. Until proven otherwise. Like someone said above, This is Michigan!

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  69. I think we will be improved on D to a great degree. Greg Robinson has proven he can't coach a defense, and although Rodriguez is a great offensive mind, he has NO clue about ANYTHING defense. If he did know anything, he wouldn't have hired greg robinsin. We'll be a better team this year, at least 8 wins, but I can't get to confident after that. 8+ wins is my prediction, could be undefeated, it just all comes down to what actually happens on the field.

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  70. Brian,

    2005 Florida went 9-3 in Meyers first year the second year N/C
    1999 OK. went 7-5 in stoops first year the second N/C
    2001 OSU went 7-5 in Tressels first year the second year N/C.
    So you were right on two and WRONG on 1. All I am trying to say is be alittle more optimistic. And check all your fact. And ALL of these coaches won a National Championship in there second year.

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  71. For what it's worth. I have been playing a dynasty on NCAA 12. I'm currently the head coach of SJSU (san jose state u)in the year 2015 and Michigan finished 9-3 +bowl win in 2011, and they were a top 5 team in 2012, 2013, 2014 they lost in the National Championship game, and currently they are the number 4 team in the country (year 2015). Sounds like Brady has our guys on the right track!!

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  72. Well I am Michigan in NCAA 12. And we are back (2011) to back (2012) to back (2013) to back (2014) national champions. And we are number one in the country in 2015, that's what I call a turnaround.

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  73. are you playing on varsity? ;) lol

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  74. This is Michigan! The Team The team The Team. No one man is bigger than the program. Lets all get pumped for the coming season and wish the team well. GO BLUE!!!!!

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  75. @Kevin
    Heisman baby, it's not very hard. I started out with the best offense in the game (IMO) and a defense that is very stellar(once the players are in the correct system). And recruiting is a breeze with Florida, Texas, Michigan, and Ohio pipelines and A+ ratings in most recruiting categories. The game helped me realize how great Michigan is.

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  76. 1-1-9?? Stupid. Too much exaggeration. During RR tenure didnt they go through 2 def-coaches?? Add in injuries and poor kicking game, what the hell GR had to do with those?? Why are UM fans shafting the previous coaching staff constantly??Anywho, RR did the best he could. Whats done is done. Brady Hoke Era "B1G Ten Title or bust". The only game they should be concern about is the ND, That team is loaded (regardless QB situation). NW has no defense, and no running game (Persa will not be the same in regards to running); MSU is...LoL. MSU run against us is finito as well as OSU. Never did like "Dumbo" (TP), but with out him, OSU has no shot against us. I see 2 loses the most. This is Michigan! Go Blue.

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  77. I heard this morning on 24/7 sports that kellen jones was getting home sick thats why he didnt enroll. To bad for us oh well I wish luck. At least we dont play oklahoma . Nothing about legal problem

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  78. We'll play Oklahoma for the NC **Grinning**

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  79. As I've posted a million times, if the kid had a legal problem, it would be more than just a vague internet rumor.

    It would be ammo for every Hoke/MI, and now OK hater out there.

    Maye he was not home sick at all. Maybe he just decided that with the recent OK losses of LB's due to death and injury, and in light of their number 1 ranking, he would rather play for them.

    Cass-

    LOVE the way you think! Bring on that stupid sooner schooner!

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  80. Here's a question for everyone:

    Who do you think, among what I am sure will be many, will be the player with the biggest break out year?

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  81. (WR) Stokes!!! And if we are allowed to add freshmen, watch out for Rawls. I believe he's a 3/4-year starter. With no disrespect to Dunn, but we don't need a RB in this class. Grab Garnet, Diamond/Banner (toss up) and send the hounds on DGB, Diggs, and Yuri Wright!! Not a big fan of Payton. But we do need at least one receiver.

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  82. Would Hoke promise the #1 and #2 jerseys to DGB and Wright if they pulled the trigger?

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  83. Caleb-

    No. Those jerseys will only go to upper classmen who have earned the honor on and off the field. And, I mean Michigan Stadium, not some high school.

    Fresh-

    Like that pick! I see DR getting comfortable in the pro set by continually dumping short ones to an open Koger. I'll take him on O, as well.

    On D, I'll take Gordon. I think he's better positioned and supported now, and he brings the heat. While I like Roh, and think he has the potential to create havoc from the edge on his pass rush, I'm still not sure he's big enough to slip inside when needed.

    Overall? Dare I say it? I know I will be lambasted, but: Wile.

    I bet the kid turns into steady Eddie for 4 years. Long ones, short ones, KO's through the end zone, and never a missed PAT. He'll be so good, we will all take him for granted by game 5.

    No single player will so dramatically contribute to improved team performance. And, he will not get one iota of credit. Such is the unheralded life of a kicker.

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  84. I'm with BlueMarrow, I like Gordon on Defense. He's added considerable weight, and he's got the speed and athleticism to make plays. He also is one of the hardest hitters on the team.

    Offensively, Koger could be great, but I already think he is extremely underated. I like Shaw. He's played for a few seasons sure, but not to the potential we expected to see when he first signed up. I'm thinking Shaw puts up around 800+ yards this year with a dozen td's.

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  85. BlueMarrow......and th rest of you re: Wile

    I took my kids to Fan Day at the Big House last weekend. After the whole autograph thing we went down onto the field and the kickers were putting on a show. I didn't see the whole thing but what I did see was FG attempts from the 45 yard line...... Our new best friend Mr. Wile was the only kid I saw make a couple from there. This kid looked good. Fingers crossed.

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  86. CassBMW,
    I like your picks. I can live with those recruits.
    Caleb,
    Those jersys will be for JR and SR whom do as much off the field as they do on the field.

    I am starting to think Shaw will get the ball opening day. He will have erned it and Hoke rewards his SR.

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  87. Ace williams is reporting the NCAA maybe investigating Michigan and Oragon for recruiting violations regarding Pryor.This is all on the former AD and Rich Rod.The report says UM may have promised a scholarship to one of Pryors high school teammate and special benefits for Pryor mentor. Sense Pryor never enrolled at UM I am not sure if this will affect UM. Kind of like what Cam Newtons father did. For know this is all rumor and we will have to keep our fingers crossed.

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  88. @Jer89, If true, another reason why I thought DickRod was/is a major douche. I hate that guy and I knew halfway through the 2008 season that this RR thing wasn't going to work.

    Thank goodness Pryor went to TSIO. If the rumors are true, we shouldn't be affected, the guy never went to school in AA. Bill Martin is also a douche.

    I'm so glad we have the right people in place for a great decade of M athletics to look forward to!

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  89. You guys are a bunch of slappies. Below is a realistic prediction for this team:
    WMU (L): Western had on eof the best offenses last year. They will ight us up and our O will be weak first game.
    ND (L): We will get spanked 38-3 in this game.
    EMU (W): First win of the year against Ron.
    SDSU (L): SDSU better than we think!!!!!
    Minn (W): Easy game.
    NW (L): First road game -- new coach. We're done here.
    MSU (L): Another spanking 38-7.
    Purdue (W): Purdue still isn't good.
    Iowa (L): Defense is starting to come around, but lose close one.
    Illinois (W): Should win.
    Nebraska (L): This is a another sure loss. Hopefully our D is finding a groove.
    OSU (W): Defense finally comes around. We Switch QBs and are looking good.

    5-7. Realistic goal for this year. Anyone over 6-6 is smoking something....

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  90. ND-

    Not even remotely interesting post.

    But you have seem to hit on a free money concept:

    Simply put your money where your inept fingers seem to be, and place a large bet on the under for MI wins this season.

    Since your "prediction" is below the pros forecast for the under, should be a sure thing...

    Unless you are just a foolish tool...

    But then again, we all know you are what you are...

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  91. Nobody should even respond to that post from ND. Loose to wmu?? Only 3 on a weak ass rebuilding ND team???...5-7. If they go 5-7 they should fire hoke! There's no excuse for that crappy of a season. We had a nation leading, 33 year bowl streak befor RR blew it. That means every coach in the last 33 years prior to RR had at least 6 win seasons, even in thier 1st year!! It's ok though we only have 2 weeks before we can start laughing at ppl like ND & jer89, and all them other nay sayers!!

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  92. Hmm, his name is ND1989. Sounds like a Notre Dame homer. If he really thinks we lose to W.Mich, lose that bad to ND, and SDSU? Sorry, not happening. SDSU is NOT as good as people think. They have a good qb, and a good rb. Their entire receiving core had 6 receptions combined last year. The defense is nothing to write home about, and btw, their coaching staff is playing for the opponent (Michigan)...Pretty sure they'll have SDSU's number in this one.

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  93. Ace Williams is a fraud, he has been wrong on the timing of all of the commitments and anyone who pays even average attention to recruiting knew that Wilson, Kalis, Wromley, and Pipkins were going blue. He said that other players were going to be suspended after the first wave of suspensions surely based on the assumption that Hoke was going on a suspension spree, but he was once again incorrect. He also said that Kellen Jones did very bad things and that is why he wasn't coming to Michigan, but all indications point to the fact that he did not get in any legal trouble. Let's not forget the fact that scout exile (Michigan homie on 247) proved that Ace was a fake. The man is a compusive liar that hides behind his computer to try to make himself feel powerful. Ace has just as much information as I do, but I have the decency to not proclaim myself as a highly educated michigan insider. I have enough class to not start false rumors about the school I love so much.

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  94. Hey all,
    First time posting, long time follower. I predict a 9 – 3 record, plus a bowl win. I predict a better record than LY because we have; a better coaching staff, a better O-line, a better D-line, a better/healthier QB, better receivers (TE too), better RB's, a better Kicker, better LB's, better DB's, better depth chart, and better fans - all of us on the same page. Yea, the schedule is tougher, but Hoke will have the boy's tougher too. Dispute this, what am I missing? - Go Blue!!!

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  95. @bcbearcat71 I am right there with you. I would go through every game, but I don't want to. I also think that Michigan will go 9-3 with losses to Iowa, Nebraska and OSU. I think Iowa and UM are nearly equal, but in Iowa City will be too much. Nebraska is good and although it is at home I think its defense will give them the edge and as much as it pains me to say it, Ohio did thump us 38-3 last year and although they will be down and lacking many of the same playmakers, Ohio is still great in the trenches and we don't make up all 35 pts in one year. Ouch, that was painful to write. I think we will finish 3rd in the division behind Iowa and Nebraska, but ahead of MSU!

    As far as my comments about the #1 and #2 jerseys, I know historically (the 1) it has gone to someone proven. But to get the consensus top player in the class and someone that right now may be better than anyone on campus, would Hoke offer it to DGB? I'm not gonna lie I would offer it to him in a heartbeat and I am pretty sure AC, Alexander, Terrell and Braylon would be okay with it. BTW, didn't David Terrell come in as a freshman wearing #1? I know Braylon was #80 as a freshman, but I do believe Terrell was always #1!

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  96. Caleb, you're correct, David Terrell did in fact sport the #1 jersey as a freshman.

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  97. With the renewed, and recovering sense of tradition and honor being the underlying theme, I can tell you that there is NO way an HS kid will be awarded those numbers in the near future, if ever again.

    The honor of wearing those numbers has now been elevated to a status along the lines of being a team captain. Also, the scholarship attached to the #1, and the talk regarding number retirement are new since Terrell et al donned the jerseys.

    I'm more concerned with how Stonum, Hemingway, and Roundtree would feel if some snot nosed kid was promised #1 than I am about wooing a new WR recruit. I would even go so far as to question that maybe a kid might be a prima donna for even asking to wear those numbers as a FR.

    Hoke and Co. are building it, and they will come. They won't come for a number, or even just to play with Morris. They will come because it's The University of Michigan, and the Wolverine Football Team.

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  98. @smokey420:

    ND is not a "weak ass rebuilding team", they are actually far from it since they return 17 starters. Don't overlook them; Kelly is one hell of a coach

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  99. Yep, Hoke said he will only hand out to the one(s) who earned it. I also think, no scratch that,I KNOW Hopkins will surprise most of you guys. Nice specimen with good speed for his size. Looking into my crystal ball, Hopkins will take the RB helm with Rawls and Shaw giving him a breather. What ya call it? Over and Under? I say Hopkins over 1,000 yards rushing; Shaw 350+ and Rawls (hold your breath)500+. Off topic is there a relation between Jeremy Jackson and Fred Jackson??

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  100. ND is top-shelf loaded. Funny how Al Golden snatch some of our recruits last year. Anyone thinking if Crawford and the rest who went there had "special treatment"?? I live in Florida, unfortunately, and can't stand this hot, forsaken state. But the ladies here . . . well, if you haven't been here come on down!! Most are just as hot as the weather.

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  101. Cass,

    I say way under for Hopkins maybe 500. Shaw between 350 & 500 and will be the starter for the first 5 games the Rawls will take over and end up with around 750 yards.

    Mark,
    I am new to the recruiting stuff only 8 months under my belt and I am not sure if Ace is a fraud but I am sure we will find out. I pray he is wrong on this. would love to see what Benji thinks?

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  102. I felt I would be remiss if I didn't post this on here the SECOND after I watched it. I'm sure you all will enjoy the clip

    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/thelife/music/news/story?id=6874402

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  103. If any of you insider know anything about the NCAA investigating UM on the pryor and his mentor stuff? I am alittle worried about this.

    Brian,
    I watched that video the other day great video.

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  104. Jer-

    The NCAA is not investigating Michigan. If you believe the rumors, they are investigating Pryor and his entourage. In the course of such an investigation, it would only be natural due process to pose some routine questions to those involved in his recruiting.

    I'm sure if it's even happening at all, that at a minimum, they are asking questions anywhere he took an official visit.

    Here's an example: "Did he, or anyone representing him ever ask for anything either knowingly, or unknowingly, that would have constituted a violation had his request been granted?"

    Answer: "Yes. He asked if there were car dealers that were affiliated with the program that could make "special" deals for him and his family. We told him there were not, and that his question could be construed as requesting inappropriate treatment in violation of NCAA regulations."

    Hardly an investigation of Michigan.

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  105. @Cass

    Jeremy Jackson is Fred Jackson's son.

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  106. @ gotwins

    last year ND only notible wins were against USC and maybe Miami in the bowl game. The played wmu, Boston college, Utah, navy, Pitt, not the hardest schedule IMO. It's not that they suck because I don't think they do, thier still undecided on who thier qb is gonna be. It's only Kellys 2nd year... Christi was not that impressive last year and hasn't held the starting job. IMO Kelly must be RR's brother. Same style offense, D below average for ND football. Sure it worked for him @ cincinatti...but he's no coach of the year.

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  107. Smokey,

    I see it the exact same way. I don't claim to be an authority on Kelly, but I'll be worried about ND when I start seeing all that blue chip talent they recruit being developed into a wrecking machine.

    So far, I still only see "please roll over for us because we are ND and you should." And then Navy just about beats them, again.

    I think Kelly is a lot like RR in terms of O, not that great at player development, and self destructive temper.

    I'm just glad Urban never got his wish. For now. And may he stay in the booth, and out of Columbus forever. I'll do 12 hail Mary's to that!

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  108. DAMN!! You did Hopkins dirty. Dirtier than a Reverend fighting eternal revenue! But I like your brains on Rawls. I thought Jeremy and Fred were related, just that not much was said!! Much obliged. I forgot about Cox (forgive me Cox, lack of brain cells). Cox, Hopkins, Rawls, Shaw, V.Smith, Hayes. Damn we loaded.

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  109. @smokey:

    Crist will most likely be their starter. Crist was a bit up and down last year but it was his first year in the spread. But he had good flashes. Remember he threw for almost 300yds and 2 TDs vs us and he only played like half the game and the next game vs MSU he threw for 370yds and 4 TDs.

    And for their defense, they actually were pretty strong the 2nd half of last year. They dont run a RichRod 3-3-5; they run a 3-4 and ranked 23rd overall in scoring D last year.

    All Im saying is last year Denard Robinson had the best game of his life and they played a walkon QB for most of the game and we still barely beat them. I just dont think we should be writing them off.

    If you think there wins were unimpressive, just remember that they beat a ranked Utah team, Army, USC on the road and killed Miami in a bowl with a true freshman 3 star QB.

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  110. Western = Win 100%
    ND = Win 50%, either ND is overrated or they will have a magical season, this game defines there season and Michigans
    EMU = Win 100%
    an Diego State = Win 50%, probably the sleeper of the first 5, and could potentially be a trap game after an emotional win versus ND and a blow against EMU, Hoke will have to have the players attention on his former team to avoid a devastating loss
    Minnesota = Win 100%, Minnesota sucks
    Northwestern = Win 75% NW isn't good enough on defense, we make one more stop than they do an Persa throws a late pick
    Michigan State = I think playing this game on the road actually helps UM this year, the fact that MSU is probably one of the 4 best teams in the conference is good for us too, all the attention will be on them and how they have a chance to be special this year. UM goes in a steals one from Sparty (side note: we kick there ass in basketball this year as well) = 25%
    Purdue = another sleeper as it comes after a 7-0 start and feeling big in the britches, Purdue is out manned in this one though and UM holds. = 60% Yeah they are 8-0...
    Iowa = Iowa is one of those teams that know one really knows what to think, yeah Stanzi left but some Iowa faithful say Vandenburg (I think that is his name) is better than Stanzi. Having said that Ferentz will have a melt down in this one and UM wins moving to 9-0. = 50%
    Illinois - this game is the one that Brady wants back, they go in 9-0 and come out limping and 9-1. = 50%
    Nebraska - Nebraska is overrated and Bo Pelini is in jeopardy after finishing in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten (This is the real big 12 Cornhusker fans!) Win = 50%
    Ohio State - Well it all comes down to this, as a UM graduate and die hard, I think I would rather go 1-11 as long as the 1 was against the Vestless Bucks. They will be ripe for the picking this year amidst turmoil and sanctions. UM wins and finished 11-1 playing on December 3rd in Indy, against MSU again....
    MSU part 2 = MSU ousts Michigan in an old fashion shootout. Cousins redeems himself and MSU goes onto a BCS berth, while Michigan is left to play LSU in an at Large BCS game.
    LSU = the mad hatter wishes he took this job because he realizes that UM isn't going to be sanctioned and he would have been loved by the UM faithful. Go Hoke and get ready for the Gauntlet of 2012...

    UM finished 12-2 in Hoke's first year and expectations become absurd. You will notice that half of my picks are 50-50 and they could go either way, the Notre Dame game sets the stage for the rest of the year, and Brady Hoke's legacy. If he loses that game and MSU, Nebraska and OSU, he will have done something not even RR did... Good Luck Mr Hoke, and as always..Hail to the Victors, the Leaders and the Best!

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