Thursday, 1 December 2011
The final five
Ahh the time has finally come to put some percentages into the equation! There's an assumed five spaces left in the class, so here's how I think things could play out, with percentages for each recruit. Remember, these are just my opinions, although I'd like to think they are well reasoned opinions...
1) WR Amara Darboh: There's been a fair bit of buzz since his Michigan visit last weekend. Everyone is assuming Michigan is leading, and the only thing in our way right now is a trip to Florida that might not even happen. Even if he does go to see the Gators, I still love Michigan's chances; (Florida's leading receiver is Andre Debose with 15 catches for 423 yards...their RB has 28 catches....). Notre Dame could be a contender, but they already have 3 WRs committed along with an athlete who could play WR or Safety.
Chances of picking Michigan: 80%
2) WR Jehu Chesson: Another visitor from last weekend; Chesson struck up a friendship with Darboh, and there's a strong possibility that they will attend college together at Michigan. Chesson loved his UM visit, and the competition is Iowa and Northwestern, not exactly big time schools. Jehu has a great chance to play at a big time school in Michigan, at a time when the Wolverines are searching for their next great receiver; it should be hard for him to pass up that opportunity.
Chances of picking Michigan: 65%
3) RB Brionte Dunn: You know the story. If he goes with his head, it's Michigan. If he goes with his heart, it's OSU. In the end I think he realizes that his best opportunity to excel is at Michigan, in a pro style offense in front of a monster OL that is taking shape in this current recruiting class.
Chances of picking Michigan: 55%
4) CB Yuri Wright: He's been heavily focused on his high school playoffs recently, and thus didn't get a chance to visit, but there's a good chance he makes it up to Ann Arbor this month. Yuri has spoken highly of Michigan, even though he hasn't visited yet, and that has to be a good sign. If all goes well on the visit, Michigan may well be the team to beat.
Chances of picking Michigan: 40% (It's not a high percent, that's because there are still a lot of schools in the running.)
5) Mystery Tight End: It could be Taylor McNamara, it could be J.P Holtz who was visited this week by the coaching staff, or it could be a TE out of nowhere! Whoever it is, Michigan wants/needs one more in this class.
Chances of picking Michigan: N/A (none have visited yet, or even set a visit date)
This means, despite the good visit from Josh Garnett and Jordan Diamond last weekend, as well as the coaches visit to Evan Boehm this week, I don't think they'll get another OL in this class. A lot of it has to do with decision timetables, as well as proximity to home in the case of Garnett. This also means that I don't rate Michigan's chances with Stefon Diggs; the competition will be too great, and his timeline probably doesn't help our cause.
Things can change, but if I had to call it today, this would be my guess.
EDIT: Some of you have commented that this post sets the bar too low. To be honest I don't really see it that way, it's just realistic. Michigan wants Brionte Dunn more than they want a 6th lineman, and they definitely want 2 WRs, so that's three players you'd take over Garnett/Diamond etc. Then personally I think they need another tight end in the class, because A.J Williams could easily move to OT and become a really good player there. Lastly we have Yuri Wright, who is a stud corner. I don't have any real preference as to who to take, Yuri Wright or a 6th OL, I just think Wright would be more likely to commit before Garnett/Diamond.
As for Stefon Diggs, it would be extremely optimistic to put him on this list when he's still considering 7 other schools, and hasn't visited/given any indication that Michigan is in a top 2-3. Plus Darboh and Chesson are both announcing before Christmas (maybe even before Diggs visits!), so if they choose UM, we might not even have room for Diggs.